The project deals with three fundamental aspects of risk assessment.
Firstly, a framework will be established for the quantification of risks due to extraordinary loadings and loadings due to accidents, whereby the relevance of the loading for the tape of structure is considered.
Secondly, the philosophical basis and the framework for setting acceptance criteria will be identified.
Thirdly, it is envisaged that the Swiss judicature accepts risk based methodologies for decision making for the design of civil engineering structures.
Following methods were used in the project:
Literature review, statistical data analysis, simulations, shape calculations, time-invariant and reliability, time-invariant calculations, bayesian decision theory.
The result of the project is a description of a methodology for assessing acceptable levels of risk in the design of structures and durability of risk analysis in the changing legal framework.
The following conclusion is obtained from the project:
It is recommended to develop a generic risk models for specific structures in the portfolio of the transport authorities by using Bayesian-Probabilistics Networks. By implementing site and object specific information and characteristics of the structures these models can be used to assess and aggergate the risk over the whole portfolio of structures under the responsibility of the Swiss road authority.