The proposal addresses the topic: “ATS Level Business Jet 2035 forecast” (JTI-CS2-2016-CFP05-TE2-01-03) and it is devoted to performing forecasts for business jet traffic, in terms of fleet and movements starting from 2015, passing by 2020/2025/2030 until 2035, with a detail at country/region/world levels. Where gaps exist, an estimate will be made based on the methodology. More in detail the Technology Evaluator has requested: “The global fleet development and the share of European (Clean Sky) Aircraft” and “the development of movements per country and between Origin and Destination airports”.
The overall objectives of the project are:
- to analyse existing forecasts about volume and movements of Business jets in the relevant years
- to establish a new forecast about bizjet fleet up to 2035 and the number of bizjet movements at country/region/world levels
- to estimate the market share of European products in the market.
Generally, the forecast of business jet volumes depends on technology progress and the associated cost reductions, demand related to “Gross Domestic Product” development and accessibility. This means that the future of the bizjet transport also depends on developing new concepts of operation, aircraft concepts and business models and plans. After the assessment of the existing forecasts by different sources and CleanSky related actions and outcomes, the methodology of harmonization and improvement of the business jet forecast will be defined and finalized.
The methodology based on a new dedicated demand equation will include:
- definition of the economic, technology and societal drivers,
- harmonized business models, business plans and scenarios to create an improved forecast model.
The outcomes will be completed in case of gaps and shared with the involved stakeholders and Clean Sky Topic Management. In this way, the forecasts will allow to make better characterisation of the measurable effects of technologies developed in CleanSky 2.