This proposal addresses the topic: “ATS Level SAT 2035 forecast“ (JTI-CS2-2016-CFP05-TE2-01-05) and it is devoted to perform forecasts for small air transport traffic, in terms of fleet and movements starting from 2015, passing by 2020/2025/2030 until 2035. This forecast will be detailed at country/region/world levels. Where gaps exist, an estimate will be made based on the methodology. More in detail the Technology Evaluator has requested: “The global fleet development and the share of European (Clean Sky) Aircraft” and “the development of movements per country between origin and destination airfields”.
The overall objectives of the project are:
- to analyse existing forecasts about the volume and movements
- to establish a new forecast about the air traffic and fleet of small air transport up to 2035 at country/region/world levels
- to estimate the market share of European products in the market
Generally, the forecast of small air transport volumes depends on: technology progress and the associated cost reductions, demand related to “Gross Domestic Product” development and accessibility. This means that the future of the small air transport also depends on developing new concepts of operations, aircraft concepts business models and business plans.
After the assessment of the existing forecasts by different sources and CleanSky related actions and outcomes, the methodology of harmonization and improvement of the small air transport forecast will be defined and finalized.
The methodology based on a new dedicated demand equation will include:
- definition of the economic, technology and societal drivers
- harmonized business models, business plans and scenarios to create and improved forecast model.
The outcomes derived by such methodology will be completed (in case of gaps) and shared with the involved stakeholders and CleanSky Topic Management in order to make an easier evaluation of the measurable effects of technologies developed in CleanSky 2.