CONSAVE 2050 - Constrained Scenarios on Aviation and Emissions
Overview
Background & policy context:
Following a proposal of a German Aviation Scenario Circle AERONET has performed two workshops on 'Long-term Scenarios of Aviation and its Emissions' at - DLR, Cologne, 17–18 October 2000, - the Airport Palma de Mallorca, 19-21 March 2001. After these workshops, a team from DLR; NLR; QinetiQ, DLH, MVA, IIASA and Airbus was formed which developed a proposal for an EU - Accompanying Measure Project CONSAVE 2050. This proposal was approved by the Commission and a two year project was started in September 2002.
Objectives:
The major objective of the CONSAVE 2050 programme is to contribute to ensuring sustainable growth of air transportation with regard to environmental issues.
The output of the scenario quantification exercise will go a step beyond (and improve) existing scenarios on aviation and emissions (IPCC/SRES), helping to develop a common European understanding on constrained aviation scenarios and emissions. In addition, the project will generate valuable input for FP6 research programmes in terms of a defined range of boundary conditions for air transport development, and will help to support and enhance the competitiveness of European aviation industry.
The project work consists of developing quantified scenarios on aviation and emissions with focus on the Year 2050, with a look on the short (Year 2025) and long (Year 2100) term development relevant for aviation industry planning and climate models respectively. It will include constrained conditions and the newest 'background' data on external fields to transport and air transport, which are setting the frame for the long term development in aviation.
Methodology:
The key factors and qualitative background scenarios were developed. The substantive technical project work started with the examination, review and choice of the key scenario descriptors that were later to be quantified in the scenarios on aviation and its emissions.
To assess the draft set of key scenario descriptors, a questionnaire was sent to experts representing a broad range of the aviation community (including AERONET-members). Responses were evaluated and used to improve and extend the list of key factors which was then reviewed by the CONSAVE Advisory Committee founded by DLH.
Based on the outcome of these activities, a final catalogue of key factors was developed for subsequent quantification. To ensure that the outcome of the project would match the needs and views of stakeholders within aviation, a range of contacts has been made with aviation experts, including the completion of a questionnaire and a review by the Advisory Committee.
Quantification of the set of four Background Scenarios was successfully performed for key parameters using results for those IPCC/SRES scenarios which are similar to the background scenarios developed within WP 1.
For the final quantification with the AERO-model, a differentiation of the GDP values used for the Unlimited Skies scenario and the Regulatory Push and Pull scenario was developed, with the figures for the latter decreased by ca. 3 percent, an amount consistent with the reduction in the aviation system. A concept for the planned European Review of the preliminary study results was developed and presented at the Mid-Term Meeting. Close contacts to some of the related external projects were assured by the fact that one or more contractors are team members of those projects. With ACARE/ASTERA especially, a continuous exchange of information and reciprocal consideration/use of results was agreed on.
The project work is supported by management and coordination activities led by DLR. One important task was to organise the internal assessment of preliminary results of the various work packages by the consortium. An Advisory Committee of stakeholders/customers was founded as part of WP 5 by DLH. Three meetings were held including the final assessment of the Draft Final Report, to ensure that the requirements of users are taken into account.
To allow the smooth and effective running of the project work, it was impor
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