The transportation sector is faced with various challenges: It has to fulfill the individual needs of mobility, as well as the requirements of globalized freight traffic. In addition, the negative impact on the environment must be reduced, e.g. to achieve the national climate protection goals. The conditions for this transformation process are difficult as traffic volumes have increased significantly over the past decades. For the future, a further increase in passenger traffic and freight traffic is expected.
The goal of the Renewbility II project was to further enhance the integrated modelling system of the preceding Renewbility project. In a second step, the possible contribution of the transport sector to climate protection is quantified up to the year 2030 using scenario analysis which draws upon the involvement of various social stakeholders.
The developed models allow quantifying the overall GHG-emissions of the transportation sector (directly emitted Greenhouse gases, as well as secondary GHG sources such as vehicle production).
Within the project, 2 different scenarios for 2030 are developed :
- The basic scenario considers current prognosis regarding social and economic conditions, as well as existing limitations by law.
- In the climate protection scenario, the transportation sector reaches a very high, but realistic contribution to climate protection
For the baseline scenario current regulations in the transport sector are considered and assumptions and projections are made on the basis of existing developments. Greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 12 % in 2030 compared to 2005 in the baseline scenario as a result of significant efficiency improvements, an increased usage of alternative fuels and a rising transport demand.
In the climate protection scenario significantly more ambitious transport measures are implemented while simultaneously increasing Germany’s economic strength and stabilising the national budget. The resulting impact on greenhouse gas emissions amounts to a 37 % reduction in the same timeframe. In addition to further efficiency gains and the use of alternative propulsion technologies and fuels, mode shifts and transport avoidance contribute to lower emissions.
Findings of the study are published in detail by a final report (German only) which is available online via the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety: