Overview
Electromobility is often proposed to be the solution for the problem of combining individual transportation with an ecologically sustainable development. A prediction of the effects on the economic environment triggered by the anticipated change in the mobility paradigm from a fossil fuel based individual transportation system to one relying on electromobility and public transport requires comprehensive analyses. Thus, the consortium intends to estimate and assess the full economic
costs associated with a higher share of electromobility in a framework that suits the complexity of the matter, considering economic and environmental benefits.
The core of the project consists of a significant extension of the existing hybrid bottom-up top-down general equilibrium model of the Institute of Advanced Studies (IHS) in regard to the traffic and electricity sectors. Based on scenarios for transport and energy developed by the Umweltbundesamt for Austria and the Öko-Institut for Germany, this model will be used to conduct a cost-benefit analysis in regard to electromobility for Germany and Austria. Additionally, IHS
and the Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE) will analyse consumer behaviour and mobility patterns based on original household-level surveys, the results of which will enter the general equilibrium model. In parallel, the German Institute of Economic Research (DIW) and the Institute for Energy Systems and Electric Drives (ESEA) of the Vienna University of Technology elaborate an existing unit commitment models and develop these into a partial equilibrium electricity market model to assess the technological interactions between electromobility and the electricity sector. The environmental benefits of the anticipated shift in the mobility paradigm are then quantified departing from model results by CASE, who will also assist in applying both models to Poland to demonstrate how this
framework can be extended to any country of the European Union.
Macroeconomic Model + Scenarios
The centre of the project consists of a significant extension of the IHS’ existing hybrid bottom-up top-down general equilibrium model (specifically concerning the traffic sector and the bottom-up electricity part of the model) to assess the economic costs of political, technological and environmental scenarios, developed by UBA and OEI for Austria and Germany, respectively. With the help of CASE, the model is applied to Poland, as an application example for any European country.
Household Survey - Microdata
In order to receive a realistic notion of household preferences regarding e-mobility, IHS and CASE each perform a micro-estimation to analyse the population’s willingness to change from the common transportation pattern to one based more on public transport and e-mobility.
Electricity Market Modelling + Scenarios
Parallel to that, ESEA and DIW analyse the technological possibilities concerning power grids, the electricity sector and charging stations for EVs. To this end, they elaborate on existing unit commitment models and develop these into a transnational partial equilibrium electricity market model framework to assess the technological interactions between electromobility and the electricity sectors. Scenario assumptions are again provided by UBA and OEI. With the support of CASE, electricity market modelling is extended to Poland.
Environmental Benefits
Finally, building on previous model results, CASE also performs a detailed study regarding the quantification of environmental benefits for the anticipated shift in the mobility paradigm.
Funding
Results
The analysis of the overall economic and systemic effects of an increased market penetration of EVs requires a comprehensive approach. Therefore, the aim of DEFINE was an estimation of costs and benefits in an analytical framework that suits the complexity of the matter and explicitly relates electromobility to the energy system, environmental effects and household behaviour.
As the economic core of the evaluation framework, the project further developed and extended the macroeconomic model MERCI. Model results for Austria show that e-mobility can make a clear contribution to the reduction of CO2 emissions in the traffic sector under supportable economic costs.
Possible achievable potentials of EVs were investigated in two scenarios. The expected CO2-emission reductions in the BAU-scenario would amount to 1 million tonnes and in the Electromobility+ scenario to 1.2 million tonnes.
The power and heat system simulation model (HiREPS) for Austria and Germany was deployed to analyse the effects of different charging strategies and types of user behaviour. The analysis shows high potential for reducing costs through the implementation of cost-based market-led infrequent controlled charging.
DEFINE analysed the market potentials of EVs as well as possible future interactions with the German power system up to 2030. Based on the analysis, a set of recommendations for policy makers was worked out. Moreover, a stated preference study on the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles was carried out among adults who are intending to purchase a passenger car in Poland, which is the first study of this kind in the CEE region.