Climate protection requires a drastic reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions. In order to achieve the German goal of almost complete elimination of emissions by 2050, a significant and early structural change in all energy consuming sectors is required.
The project "e-mobility as a component of the transformation in energy usage and climate protection", examines what contribution electromobility can make to achieve these climate protection targets in the transport sector, and how a long-term conversion towards a zero emissions transport can be brought about.
Together with the Institute for Applied Ecology, INFRAS and IFEU, the Institute of Transport Research is developing a modelling instrument which allows for reliable and quantified statements about the potential of various transport sectors measures in reducing final energy demand.
The research project builds directly on the previous two research projects Renewbility and Renewbility II. The model tool chain developed within these two projects will be extended in the course of the project, the data base used will be updated and the temporal analysis horizon will be extended to the year 2050. Examples of model enhancement in the field of transport demand are an explicit inclusion of the demand for electric mobility on the part of users and an enhanced view at the long-distance travel.
The advanced models allow the effect of specific funding instruments and transport demand measures to be quantified. The analysis incorporates different effect dimensions, among them travel demand, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and economic effects. The approach adopted for the project takes into account not only the direct greenhouse gas emissions of transport demand and energy sources, but also those resulting from the production of fuels and vehicles.
Like the previous projects, the research project seeks early and continuous dialogue with a broad base of essential social actors. Thus, the experience and perspectives of relevant stakeholders can already be taken into account in the design process of scenarios. A detailed description of the modelling approach, the assumptions made, and the calculated effects of both individual and packages of measures contribute to both a high transparency of the project approach and its results.
The focus of the Institute of Transport Research’s (VF) work is the modelling of transport demand with a perspective towards 2050 for various scenarios. This includes passenger transport demand and freight transport demand for a base development and various other scenarios. The scenarios will be developed during the project together with the stakeholders and will contain various packages of measures.
A unique feature of the project is that the effects of various measures are not only evaluated on a Germany-wide scale. Some of the measures are analysed exemplarily and with greater detail for selected model regions (Berlin, Brunswick and Main-Rhön). To achieve this, we combine microscopic and macroscopic traffic demand models.