The main objective of the eMAP project (2012-2015) is to analyse feasible deployment paths of electric vehicles for the time horizon until 2025-2030. This will be done using a scenario based market model which specifies consumer demand and market supply of electromobility.
Socio-economic impacts of deployment of electromobility on greenhouse gas emissions, local emissions, transport costs, energy supply safety and technological change in industry and economy will be evaluated under various scenarios. Political supporting actions and strategies of electric vehicles will be identified and their impacts on the deployment paths analysed and evaluated. In the end, recommendations for optimized political strategies will be derived.
The regional scope of the project focuses on Europe, most importantly the three partner countries Finland, Germany, and Poland. These vehicle markets will be analysed in detail with regard to demand structure and supply of electric vehicles and necessary infrastructures.
The main objectives of the eMAP project are:
- to identify the main characteristics of drivers and pinpoint impediments on side of the customers and the suppliers of electromobility
- to quantify the demand for electric vehicles given different scenarios
- to quantify supply of electric vehicles in different market segments
- to make a forecast of development paths of electromobility based on scenarios
- to make a thorough socio-economic evaluation of the deployment path of electric vehicles given the different scenario outcomes
- to determine and evaluate measures and strategies to increase speed of the adaption of electric vehicles
- to provide policy options and recommendations for optimized deployment programs.
As shown in the relatively conservative BAU scenario, one of the main drivers for electrification is the EU regulation on CO2 limits for passenger cars. Individual market shares and the timing of market penetration strongly depend, however, on the national legislative and economic framework, namely national taxation schemes and electricity prices.
Contrary to what could have been expected, results showed that assumptions for higher investments into traction battery research and development does not lead to significantly higher market shares of pure electric vehicles (BEV). However, in markets like Germany, which initially do not favour electric vehicles, lower battery system prices indeed lead to a stronger electrification of the fleet. It has been shown that national policies promoting electric vehicles can be an effective path towards an electrified fleet.
In addition, the timing of political instruments is crucial for an effective market penetration: a quick adoption is necessary to enable a spread of technology and know-how within the industry and thus a decrease in costs.
The socio-economic evaluation and the stakeholder consultations show that there are good arguments to support electromobility. Economic and environmental benefits justify political promotion strategies. Technical progress is one feature of support. But technical progress is not enough to reach a quick penetration all over Europe. To convince consumers to buy electric vehicles, other financial incentives have to be considered and implemented.