Error Propagation in Transport Models (SVI2004/015)
Overview
Background & policy context:
The project approach is based on the following literature:
1) Multiple applications of error propagation in weapon simulation systems for the Swiss defense sector (GRD 1978-1990)
2) Die Fehlerfortpflanzung in Verkehrs- und Emissionsmodellen (Sem' Arbeit C. Luz, ETHZ 1994)
3) www.zueritraffic.ch (Dienstabteilung Verkehr, Stadt Zürich)
4) Project TMP-CH with Robert-Grandpierre+Rapp AG (ASTRA)
5) Project Traffic Online CH with B+S AG (ASTRA)
6) Project Qualitron with Büro B+S AG (ASTRA)
7) Intelligent VMS Setting for the motorway junction Darmstadt (Verkehrszentrale Hessen, Frankfurt/Rödelheim)
Objectives:
The goal of the project is to answer the question: "How precise is a transport model?". The rules of error propagation are well known to physicists. They are applied to the 4 steps of transport modeling, with special emphasis to the assignment procedure. First, a model developed at ETHZ in OBERON is translated and extended to apply error propagation rules to all numerical operations. Second, error propagation is studied with a small synthetic model and the Swiss private transport model from ARE. Third, a leaflet (1 page A4, recto/verso, for broad distribution) is created with a) basics of error propagation in transport models, b) advices to follow to minimise errors, c) some rules of thumb to estimate the output errors from known input, and d) pitfalls to avoid during the process.
Methodology:
Building a transport modelling SW from existing modules and including error propagation functionalities. Using this SW to find out I/O dependencies of errors. Producing a leaflet which summarises all results.
The main activities include: modelling, simulation, aplication of the theory of error propagation in numerical calculation.
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