Forecasting and Assessment of New Technologies and Transport Systems and their Impacts on the Environment
Although national activities in some Member States in the development of transport technologies and their effects are relatively well developed, there does not yet exist a European wide perspective that takes account of the objectives of the Common Transport Policy. Therefore FANTASIE will identify and quantify the significance of new technologies on the environment, safety and efficiency in conformity with the CTP. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = 'urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office' />
- Identification of new technologies (evolutionary and revolutionary) and lines of technological development which are expected to have a major impact on transport systems in the EU and the attainment of EU Common Transport Policy aim.
- Development and validation of methods of assessment which enable the scale of this impact to be forecast and quantified.
- Assessment of new technologies for their environment, safety, efficiency and socio-economic impacts.
- Assessment of technical and market potential for improving efficiency, safety, and the use of recycled materials, and for reducing environmental impacts.
- Evaluation of how technologies could affect the attainment of Common Transport Policy objectives, and the policy levers available to influence the outcome.
The project will define a working framework and methodology that:
- is based on a European perspective and European policy objectives;
- applies assessment indicators and criteria that are fitted to the policy context to enable a comprehensive, quantitative assessment to be carried out;
- builds on best practice.
The project will perform a European level technology analysis and forecast made up of the following sub-tasks:
- a broad technological and geographical survey of transport and transport-related technologies and systems.
- a technology watch for relevant technologies not specifically in the transport area.
- a targeted technology forecast of new technologies which are expected to have a major impact on future European Transport Systems.
FANTASIE produced a wealth of information covering specific technologies (such as propulsion and information systems), vehicle concepts and transport system concepts, for a range of time horizons (2005, 2020 and 2030), journey types (urban, inter-urban etc.) and socio-economic scenarios.
Particularly promising technologies were seen as:
- telematic technologies - likely to be of benefit across all impact categories - such as on-board emissions management, multi-modal traveller information and trip planning, dynamic route planning and navigation, electronic tolling, anti-collision systems, smart cards, intelligent cruise control and traffic management systems;
- fuel cell and hybrid propulsion systems, offering significant energy and environmental benefits;
- improvements in the conventional all-purpose car, such as advanced turbo-diesel engines, direct injection petrol engines and reduced weight;
- tilt rotor technologies for air transport, giving significant fuel savings and noise reduction;
- airships for moving heavy and bulky loads;
- new systems for personal rapid transit;
- road trains.
Quantitative estimates of market shares and impacts at a European level have been prepared.
Policy options to promote new technologies can be generic (trying to improve the conditions for innovation) or specific to certain selected technologies. Some experts on technology policy prefer generic options because these allow the market actors to come up with new ideas and the most cost-effective solution. However, the realisation of specific technologies often requires changes in legislation and regulations to remove barriers - generic policy action may be insufficient. Therefore, FANTASIE recommends a combination of the two approaches:
- Generic measures across the transport sector, such as standardisation, R&D funding, pilots and demonstrations.
- Packages of policy measures directed towards specific clusters of technologies, such as propulsion systems, urban transport technologies, intermodal systems, air traffic management systems, travel information, and road traffic management and payment systems.
Industrieanlagen Betriebsgesellschaft, Germany; AEA Technology plc, acting through ETSU, United Kingdom; Consiglio Nazionale Delle Ricerche, Italy; Foersvarets Forskningsanstalt, Sweden; Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research, Netherlands; Joint Research Centre, Italy; University of Leeds Innovations Ltd, United Kingdom; University of Rome 'La Sapienza', Italy; Centro Studi Sui Sistemi Di Transporto SpA, Italy; Hoegskolan Dalarna, Sweden; Whole Systems, Belgium; Adviesdienst Verkeer en Vervoer, Netherlands.