Overview
In the last two years more motorways (M3-M35, M8, M30, M6-M56) have been investigated by TRANSMAN, where the selection of the best project alternative was the task. To solve the different planning tasks TRANSMAN has developed over decades the TRANSWAY model and programme system, which enables the forecast of transport demand flows and traffic loads in the network, further to the calculation of changes in transport time, operation costs, accident losses, air pollution, noise, occupied land and the improved accessibilities between zones as well as the changes of location potentials. The efficiency evaluation and ranking of alternatives by cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-criterial analysis (MCA), should demonstrate the social-economic viability of the projects and the national economy.
Beside the efficiency requirements of the infrastructure developments the financing of the projects is always a crucial issue. It becomes very important also in the accession countries, which expect funding from the EU. Therefore it seems also important to show to which extent the best of the alternative contributes to the cohesion and values on European level, which can be showed - as a proxy - by the participation of the international traffic from the benefits of the total traffic. In connection to the CBA and MCA evaluations, calculations have been made about the benefits gained and the burdens caused by the foreign traffic, which can be an argument for EU-funding also as a compensation for 'supra-national inequalities'. The higher the international participation from the benefits (and from the burdens) is, the higher the proportion of EU-funding should be as a contribution to the national efforts.
- Transport related impacts and modelling tools
- Traffic- and efficiency analysis of highway project alternatives
- The investigation of the impacts of the foreign traffic
- Gradual long-term development of the national highway network
Funding
Results
The transport infrastructure developments determine changes in the transport internally through possible changes in the 'regulators' (e.g. time, costs, and other conditions) influencing the transport patterns, what leads to shifts in transport modes and changes in traffic volumes, conditions and 'outputs'. The interventions have impacts on the accessibilities, which influence the involvement of land, capital and labour and change the land-use and the socio-economic framework of an area. In this changed frame, socio-economic phenomena will change, as e.g. life quality, estate values, welfare, economic prosperity, cohesion, regeneration, tax revenues, attracted investments, etc.
The calculation of indirect effects of transport initiatives/investments would need macroeconomic models, which allow the consideration also of rebound effects, but which are for Hungary at the moment not available. Therefore TRANSMAN uses a model based on the accessibilities, which has been developed before decades. The traffic demand has been calculated by an uni-modal traffic model system (TRANSWAY) based on vehicle (car and truck) O-D-surveys of 1987 and upgraded for 1993 and 2001rs.
The traffic assignment was completed for the different network development alternatives by a multistep successive method using generalised cost functions for the different road categories including time costs, fuel cost, tolls and a 'comfort' component depending on the road category. In connection to the traffic models different impact modules has been elaborated for the quantification of different traffic consequence phenomena. The indicators expressed in monetary terms (time, fuel, accident losses and maintenance costs) are conjoined with the road investment costs and serve as basis for cost-benefit analysis (CBA). With exception of the investment costs all indicators are included in a multicriterial use values-analysis (MCA) scheme, where the 'utility scales' are adjusted to the optimal indicator values of the best of the alternatives (100 scores). Taking into consideration that the infrastructure developments occurs from national resources, but the benefits (and the excess burdens) concerns not only the domestic transport users and economy therefore the national developments are worth to international (EU) subsidies.
The aim is to improve the network-planning methods (traffic-estimation, impact-quantification and assessment) that the benefits and burdens caused by the national and
Policy implications
The rate of the subsidisation - in line with the EU's efforts - can be determined by the following:
- time savings of the foreigners,
- accidents caused by the foreigners,
- air pollution caused by the foreigners,
- economic development in the home countries of the infrastructure users.
So the extent of the subsidies should be defined by the advantages of - and burdens caused by - the foreign users and the economic surpluses of their home countries. In view of the foreign impact-ratios the study defined the reasonable looking EU funding ratios for an accession country as Hungary, supposed that a project is efficient even if the ratios can be seen as arbitrary.
The total calculation of indirect effects of transport initiatives/investments would need macroeconomic models, which allow the consideration also of rebound effects, but which are for Hungary at the moment not available. A substantial improvement would bring the extension of the macroeconomic CGEurope model to Hungary, developed and used in IASON EU project.
EU accession issues:
Taking into consideration that the infrastructure developments occur from national resources, but the benefits (and the excess burdens) concern not only the domestic transport users and economy therefore the national developments are worth to international (EU) subsidies. The aim is to improve the network-planning methods (traffic-estimation, impact-quantification and assessment) that the benefits and burdens caused by the national and foreign users will be possible to demonstrate and hereby to give the reason for European subsidies.
EU accession issues
Taking into consideration that the infrastructure developments occurs from national resources, but the benefits (and the excess burdens) concerns not only the domestic transport users and economy therefore the national developments are worth to international (EU) subsidies.
The aim is to improve the network-planning methods (traffic-estimation, impact-quantification and assessment) that the benefits and burdens caused by the national and foreign users will be possible to demonstrate and hereby to give the reason for European subsidies.
Infrastructure provision (incl.TENs)
The transport infrastructure developments determine changes in the transport internally through possi