In January 2009, the new harmonised probabilistic rules for ship subdivision became mandatory, initiating a new era in rule-making in the maritime industry, in line with contemporary developments, understanding and expectations. New probabilistic damage stability regulations for dry cargo and passenger ships (SOLAS 2009) came into force. These regulations represent a major step forward in achieving an improved safety standard through rationalisation and harmonisation of damage stability requirements.
There are, however, serious concerns regarding the adopted formulation for the calculation of the survival probability of the most safety-critical ships: large cruise ships and ROPAX ships in general. Large cruise ships and ROPAX ships are currently one of the fastest growing ship sectors. These ships constitute the core strength of the European shipbuilding industry.
Furthermore, present damage stability regulations account only for collision damages, despite the fact that accidents statistics, particularly of passenger ships, indicate the profound importance of grounding accidents.
The objective is to undertake research to improve the current survivability formulation, and in addition to that, an integration of collision and grounding elements, a risk-based derivation of a new subdivision requirement and a series of concept design studies to ensure the practicability of the new formulation. More specifically:
- To enhance the statistical knowledge base regarding collision and grounding casualties of passenger ships and to check the validity of related international safety regulations.
- To develop an improved mathematical model for estimating the probability of survival of a passenger ship in case of breach of her hull and for assessing the time available for an orderly evacuation of the ship.
- To validate the newly developed mathematical models by experimental and numerical simulation analyses.
- To set-up a new risk-based required safety level for the survival of passenger ships in which societal acceptable levels of risk for people onboard are implemented.
- To evaluate the practicality of the new formulations by a series of concept design studies for passenger ships of different type and size.
- Upon completion, to submit major project results for consideration to the International Maritime Organisation IMO, in view of compelling needs to revisit current damage stability regulations for Ro-Ro passenger and cruise ships, particularly mega ships (October, 2012)
GOALDS addresses these issues by:
- Improving and extending the formulation (introduced by MSC 216-82) for the assessment of the survival probability of ROPAX and mega cruise ships in damaged condition, based on extensive use of numerical simulations;
- Performing comprehensive model testing to investigate the process of ship stability deterioration in damaged condition and to provide the required basis for the validation of the numerical simulation results;
- Elaborating damage statistics and probability functions for the damage location, length, breadth and penetration in case of a collision or grounding accident, based on a thorough review of available information regarding these accidents over the past 30-60 years worldwide;
- Formulating a new probabilistic damage stability concept for ROPAX and cruise ships, incorporating collision and grounding damages, along with an improved method for calculation of the survival probability;
- Establishing new risk-based damage stability requirements of ROPAX and cruise vessels based on a cost/benefit analysis to establish the highest level for the required subdivision index;
- Investigating the impact of the new formulation for the probabilistic damage stability evaluation of passenger ships on the design and operational characteristics of a typical set of ROPAX and cruise vessel designs (case studies);
- Preparing and submitting a summary of results and recommendations.
The current survivability formulation has been improved, and in addition to that, an integration of collision and grounding elements, a risk-based derivation of a new subdivision requirement and a series of concept design studies to ensure the practicability of the new formulation.
Comprehensive model testing has taken place, to investigate the process of ship stability deterioration in damaged condition and to provide the required basis for the validation of the numerical simulation results.
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