Household structure and car ownership
Overview
Background & policy context:
From 1980 to 2001 the increase of the number of residents in Norway has been about 10%. In the same period the increase of the number of households is over 30%, and the number of privately owned cars has increased by over 50%. The number of persons per household has decreased by 15%, but the average number of cars per household has increased by 18%.
The tendency for the future is that the increase in the number of households will probably for some time be larger than the increase in the number of residents. Forecasts and assessments about future car ownership are mainly focused on the potential that multi-car ownership represents, and not on the force that the increasing number of households, and the decreasing household sizes represent.
Objectives:
The main objective of this study is to investigate to which extent the change in household structure has influenced the stock of cars in Norway, and the use of the cars.
Methodology:
First the historic situation will be studied. In this part of the study, data from the Norwegian 'Population and Housing Census' conducted in 1980, 1990 and 2001 (number of households of different types over time), and data from the 'National Travel Surveys' conducted in 1985, 1992, 1997 and 2001 (average car ownership and car use in different households over time) is combined. The data is divided into several categories in terms of urbanisation.
The second part of the study deals with the future development. A car ownership model system is used to forecast the future car accessibility in Norway. The result is divided into the same categories of urbanisation as the historic data.
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