The research project aims at analysing retroactions between demographics and evolution of mobilitiy at different time-scales. In particular, location choice for households, daily accessibility and internal migrations appear to have strong interactions.
The project's objective is to investigate the cycle linking long-term society evolution, residential choice, transportation demand and resulting accessibility evolution.
The project objectives included also simulations of future scenario for Belgium. On the transportation side, emphasis was put on the evolution of transportation demand and resulting traffic conditions.
The first phase of the project was essentially devoted to the developments of the evolution models.
In the second phase, a first part has been devoted to the developments of a residential localization model [long term mobility] and of an accessibility model [short term mobility]. This was a necessary preliminary step for modelling and analysing the interactions between location and accessibility.
After all the framework was made available, it was used for analysing different scenarios about potential evolutions of the Belgian population due to relevant factors as ageing, new family cell structures or inter-generation relationships and their impacts on location and accessibility and therefore on sustainable development.
At the end of the first phase, an intermediate report focused on the developed evolution models. The achieved methodologies were described and the scenarios for the Belgian population evolution were presented.
At the end of phase 2, over the developed models and their methodologies, the final results included:
- population forecasts at municipalities level;
- a municipality based origin destination matrix for work/school and other purposes, with some indication of the modal split for each destination (for each period in the model);
- accessibility measures for each municipality and each period;
- effects of accessibility and migration interactions;
- analysis of scenario chosen to clarify the roles of to the population aging effects, of the evolution of the family cell structure and of the inter-generational relationships.