SVI 2001/508 - Mobility patterns of retired people: a challenge for the transportation system 2030?
Overview
Background & policy context:
By 2030, the number of retirees and their percentage of the overall population will be much higher than it has ever been before. Compared to today’s seniors, the group of future seniors will be better educated, will have more money at their disposal and will enjoy better health. Ownership of cars and driver licenses will be higher and seniors will engage in a wider range of activities. How will these attribute changes affect the mobility patterns of future seniors? How will traffic conditions and the number of accidents be affected? What are the requirements for the future transportation system? These are the questions that this study attempted to answer.
Objectives:
Today's and future mobility patterns and lifestyles of seniors are analysed. Explanatory models for the relationships between lifestyle and mobility before and after retirement are developed. On the base of these relationships, the status quo in terms of lifestyle and mobility patterns is extrapolated to the year 2030.
Taking into account the ongoing development in demography, transportation demands of the senior population in 2030 are estimated. The comparison between required skills to cope with the future transportation system and the age-correlated decrease of the physical and mental capabilities of the elderly shows the transportation policy measures necessary to maintain a high level of mobility and safety of elderly people.
Questionnaires and interviews with a sample of elderly people are performed and a workshop with experts was organised to test the findings of the study.
Methodology:
1. Analysis of Today’s Lifestyle- and Mobility-Patterns:
Today’s lifestyle and mobility patterns have been analysed based on data from the Swiss household panel, the Swiss micro census on travel behavior (for 1989, 1994 and 2000) and proprietary surveys, including in depth interviews. Two cohorts have been distinguished, cohort 1 represents today’s elderly - (years of birth 1915-1924) and today’s young old - (years of birth 1925-1934). Cohort 2 represents those people, who in 2030 will be the elderly (years of birth 1940 -1949) and the young old (years of birth 1950-1959). A cluster analysis has been carried out.
Additional data have been collected with an additional questionnaire (written survey) with a sample size of 137 and an age span of 55 to 95.
14 in-depth interviews have been held to investigate the quality of life changes caused by transitioning from active life to retirement and by giving up driving.
2. Mobility patterns of seniors in 2030:
The expected differences in mobility patterns of future seniors compared to those of today’s seniors have been estimated (extrapolated) on the basis of the demographic development and the aging process of the cohorts. The estimations have been backed by a literature analysis.
3. Effects on the transport system in 2030:
Based on the mobility pattern estimates of future seniors and the federal perspectives of the demographic evolvement, the effects on the travelling schemes of the year 2030 have been derived. The findings have been presented in a workshop with experts.
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