The Potential of Cycling for Climate Protection
Overview
Background & policy context:
In order to put a halt to climate change and its effects, Earth’s average temperature should not increase more than two degrees by 2050. This is a common goal which has been declared internationally. The European transport sector must therefore bring about reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of 20 % by 2030 and 70 % by 2050 compared to 2008 levels (EU Transport White Paper). Germany is aiming for a reduction of total greenhouse gas emissions of 40 percent by 2020 as compared to 1990 levels.
Objectives:
It is becoming increasingly clear that, in order to attain climate protection goals and in light of the growing scarcity and costs of energy and other resources, we need to alter our consumption and transport behavior. Does that mean that it will soon be necessary or even sufficient, that all of us in Germany predominantly cycle in order to be mobile?
The study has the objective to obtain reliable estimates of the potential of cycling transport in terms of environmental protection.
Methodology:
Mobility data was evaluated from more than 175,000 persons from January to December 2008. Their daily, personal transport was analysed for workdays, including occasional business trips. Using this data, which is representative of a cross‐section of the population, the model “ProFaiR” (prognosis of the potential for shifts in vehicle kilometres and emissions reductions through integrated cycling promotion) was developed. It allows for variations modelling of different scenarios whilst accounting for social characteristics of persons in large cities or rural areas. The model incorporates trips to frequent destinations such as work or the supermarket. Route profiles, characterised by valleys, hills and mountains, are also accounted for. The model likewise considers modal split, network load, greenhouse gas emissions and the influence of congestion on travelled kilometres and energy consumption.
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