Overview
Whilst a vision of zero deaths for air travel may seem unattainable it could be the goal of all involved in Air Traffic Systems (ATS). Getting closer to this vision requires innovation and a different approach. In Vision 2020 the EU set a goal of reducing the air travel accident rate by 80%. The implementation of PROSPERO will provide an advanced systemic methodology for managing the improvement process to achieve that goal. It will also deliver a way of measuring progress.
PROSPERO is required because the safety of the current ATS is not based on a modern understanding of risk. It is not integrated across stakeholders and does not collect and analyse data from all available sources. There is no integrated risk metric and consequently no planned improvements. Furthermore the anticipation of emergencies is not part of every day operations planning.
The PROSPERO methodology will provide a proactive anticipation of complex system risks with the potential to cause abnormal situations and crises. It will ensure more effective management of, and enhanced learning from, such situations where the risks cannot be designed out of the operation. In this way it will achieve a substantial improvement in the elimination of and recovery from human error.
PROSPERO will deliver; a common operational concept of performance indicators linked to operational goals, a methodology for operational system analysis, a new taxonomy to encompass all aviation socio-technical system concepts, a generic system-risk-management process involving all stakeholders and a software system to support the socio-technical analysis and redesign of the ATS.
The exploitation of the PROSPERO system will be assured through the implementation of an Advisory Board and Community of Practice made up of experienced and influential partners from around the world. These groups will provide a bridge between the project and the wider aviation community to ensure the project delivers a system to match their requirement.
Funding
Results
Managing aviation risks
An EU group is providing a better understanding of the risks leading to aviation accidents. The study produced a prototype aviation management system that operationally mitigates the risks, and will be scalable to incorporate all of Europe.
The EU's Vision 2020 sets a target of 80 % reduction in aviation accidents. All aviation safety depends on a thorough understanding of risk, yet present systems assess risk in incomplete and limited ways.
Hence, the new regulations and other expectations cannot be realised without a more detailed understanding of aviation risks, particularly those causing abnormal situations and emergencies. The EU-funded 'Proactive safety performance for operations' (http://prosperofp7.eu (PROSPERO)) project aims to provide the necessary information.
The 16-member project intends to develop and evaluate a prototype management system for analysing and managing complex aviation risks. Potential risks identified by the system will be anticipated and managed in operations. The system will be scalable to a whole-European level. The undertaking lasts for three years, concluding in October 2015.
Project members started with determining the user specifications to be addressed in its approach. The specifications include an evaluation framework based on the European Operational Concept Validation Methodology. During the early phase, the project also developed dissemination and exploitation plans.
During the second six-month period, the project used the specifications to begin developing a prototype system. The group also designed the case studies that will support evaluation of the prototypes. Thus, the team completed a platform for initiation of the system development process.
The consortium finalised a complete prototype system for concept demonstration. The system defines what remains to be done for integration of software tools onto a common platform that will be the final system.
An external advisory group suggested ways in which the PROSPERO system might fulfil a regulatory-level demonstration. The system is being evaluated through the OPTICS programme.
PROSPERO is delivering a prototype system for identifying and managing risks in the air transport system. The highlighted risks can be mitigated at an operational level, leading to new and safer aviation practices.