SCelecTRA stands for Scenarios for the Electrification of Transports and is a European collaborative project launched in the frame of the Electromobility + Eranet call for project. The detailed objectives of the project are to define how to support Electromobility by:
- studying economic models and environmental policies
- analysing their potential environmental impact
- providing detailed and analysed scenarios for the uptake of Electromobility based on technical, economical and environmental data
- analysing the real environmental impacts of such scenarios
- analysing the best public policy instruments for a quick development of electromobility
SCelecTRA is organized around four technical work packages and 1 coordinating work package
WP 1: Transport sector model specifications and overall architecture.
SCelecTRA used the transport sector model PET36, describing the transport sector in 36 European countries. From an existing version of the European energy sector model, new technical parameters were implemented to get a better description of the European transport sector and its interactions with other energetic sectors. A work on different ways to test public policy actions was led as a methodological input.
WP 2: Environmental policy benchmarking
The WP2 aims were twofold: (1) analysing the impact of existing environmental regulations and fiscal legislations (car, fuel tax, subsidy, levy, scrappage scheme, city fee, tolls) on the size/composition of the vehicle stock in various European countries; this information will feed into the PET36 model; (2) defining different prospective scenarios of policy measures aiming at inciting passengers to adopt low-carbon vehicles.
WP 3: Environmental assessment: Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and quantification of external costs
Environmental impacts were quantified by two different LCA approaches, analysing the impacts of individual vehicle types and of the overall car fleet via a classical (or so-called attributional) LCA and a consequential LCA, respectively.
WP 4: Scenarios for the Electrification of Transport: Policy analysis
WP4 aimed at providing a consistent analysis of the economic and environmental impacts that different policy scenarios related to electric vehicle penetration are assessed to have.
WP 5: Project Management and dissemination
The project highlighted the main questions to address the challenges of electromobility in the years to come, in particular the relevant conditions for EVs & PHEVs deployment, the impacts on the EU energy & transport sectors, the environmental impacts and the costs related to Electromobility deployment and in the EU.
SCelecTRA has shown that electromobility has a great potential in Europe for the passenger cars sector. In the most optimistic scenario xEV sales share in the total sales are close to 30% in 2030 in the big automotive markets: Germany, France, Italy, UK, and Spain.
Among the impacts on the EU energy &b transport sectors, it turned out that the additional electricity demand due to passenger electric mobility represents a small share of the 2030 final energy mix of transport, as well as a small proportion of the final electricity demand compared to other sectors. ScelecTRA also showed that in the carbon-constrained worlds described in these scenarios, the additional electricity to be supplied to transport comes from additional electricity SCelecTRA Scenarios for the electrification of transport WP5/D5.3 Final report 66 production rather than reduced uses in residential, commercial or industrial sectors, and basically no changes occur in the electricity consumption of these other sectors.
The highest reductions of tailpipe CO2 emissions towards 2035 are reached when electrification rate is higher thanks to null or lower emissions associated with electrified vehicles (reduction of carbon intensity and increase of the overall energy efficiency of the fleet) even accounting for a small rebound effect of the passenger car mobility.