eMobil 2050 - Scenarios on the possible contribution of electric transport for long-term climate protection
Overview
Background & policy context:
For Germany to meet its national climate protection targets, a substantial reduction in the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of all sectors– in particular the transport sector – is necessary. The electrification of transport in combination with an increasing use of renewable energies is an important option for fulfilling these targets. In order to ensure this development, it is particularly important for the interactions between electrical transport and the energy sector to be considered at an early stage and for possible effects on electricity production and necessary changes in the power plant fleet to be examined.
Objectives:
Within the scope of the eMobil 2050 project, the possible long-term interactions between the transport sector and the power sector are analysed on the basis of two scenarios, both of which assume a very ambitious development for electric mobility. The Grenzenlos eMobil scenario assumes further growth in transport demand and reduces GHG emissions above all by means of technological change. In the Regional eMobil scenario, greater changes in transport behaviour are assumed so that the number of kilometres travelled is also reduced.
Methodology:
The effects of the increasing electrification of the transport sector on electricity production in Germany are discussed in the study based on an analysis of marginal power generation2. This approach enables the long-term effects of an additional electricity demand on which power plant is used to supply the electricity and on the related emissions up to 2050 to be quantified and the need for additional action in the energy sector to be shown. Since the electricity market model shows the electricity demand of electrical transport as a whole, it is not possible to classify the emissions of different means of electrical transport specifically.
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