SCENARIOS - Scenarios for the Trans-European Network
Overview
Background & policy context:
Decision making on transport policy can be supported by the availability of a reference scenario. This can be defined as 'the projection of current trends for selected variables for a future horizon year.' Scenario preparation involves defining the present situation, analysing past trends, and then projecting these trends to a future year. Unlike 'contrasting' scenarios, alternative outcomes are not considered. The elaboration of such a reference scenario requires a detailed analysis of the dynamics of the entire transport system and the interaction with external factors.
Objectives:
The main aim of the SCENARIOS project was to develop a reference scenario for the European transport sector for the year 2020, covering:
- socio-economic variables;
- regional dynamics and spatial elements;
- factors affecting transport supply and demand;
- transport policy trends (e.g. European liberalisation and harmonisation policies).
The project also sought to develop projections of the evolution of technologies, not based on trends, but rather on the conditions for their entry to the market.
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