STEPS - Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects
Overview
Background & policy context:
The future framework of the transport system is closely linked to the general energy supply of the future. The relatively cheap availability of petroleum oil has allowed great expansion of the transport system over the past hundred years. This relationship between energy supply and vehicle technology and the characteristics of the transport system is typified by the internal combustion engines that power much of the transport system.
However, circumstances are changing. There is an increasing concern about the environmental consequences of the fuel technology used. Just as important are the concerns over the future availability of the fuel required. The recurrent crises and even wars in some areas where oil and gas is produced and the instability of political systems in other fuel producing areas only add to this.
Driven by these issues, a wide range of new or improved fuel technologies were proposed and developed, each with its issues over the wider consequences of its adoption.
The implications of the various futures are best considered by investigating a series of scenarios reflecting a range of 'best' estimates of future conditions in the energy, transport, economic and social fields. This explains the background behind the STEPS project.
Objectives:
The overall aim of STEPS was to develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and energy supply of the future and supports both the overall FP6 Programme objective and the specific future needs of the transport energy sector. In doing this it took into account effects such as:
- autonomy and security of energy supply;
- effects on the environment;
- economic, technical and industrial viability and
- interactions between transport & land use.
Methodology:
The project started with mapping the State of the Art, and describing relevant trends in transport and energy supply systems. With these outcomes, a basic set of scenarios was compiled. Two main variables marked the scenario framework. The first was fuel price increase, which is directly related to energy scarcity. The second variable is represented by the policies that various authorities deploy in response.
The scenarios were simulated with existing integrated land use - transport models, both on the European scale and on the regional scale. The regional models covered five diverse regions in Europe: Edinburgh, Dortmund, Helsinki and Brussels with their respective surrounding regions, and the region of South Tyrol in Northern Italy. Partly, the scenarios worked together to produce the input needed to calculate all parameters needed. In some cases, results from the European models could be used as input in the calculations within the more detailed regional models. The prognosis year was typically 2030 (in some cases 2020). The outcomes were described in an extensive overview of their impacts. The modelling exercise provided indications about the development of several variables (transport demand,
economy, energy consumption, emissions, etc.) over the period 2005 - 2020 / 2030 under the different scenarios.
To acquire a good picture of their comparability, the scenario modelling results were subjected to a meta analysis. This gave the possibility to cross-validate the model results.
With the meta analysis showing that the model results were in reasonable agreement about major environmental effects and societal behavioural responses, the assessment and comparison of scenarios was conducted using a multi-criteria analysis. All scenarios were firstly tested as to current policy objectives on the European scale. To establish a valid and credible evaluation framework, a questionnaire was sent to a group of politicians and experts in the transport and energy fields to enquire what aspects they thought were most important: energy (including e.g. reducing consumption and dependence upon import), environmental aspects (emission reduction, global warming), social aspects (e.g. safety) and economic aspects (like competitiveness, employment, GDP and the decoupling of transport growth and economic growth). The resulting weight set was used to calculate value functions to assess the scenarios as to the fuel price effect and the policy effect.
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