STEP - Short Term Prediction
Overview
Background & policy context:
A critical element of making better use of existing road capacity is the prediction, in virtually real time, of short-term future traffic conditions, so that adjustments can be made to controllers such as traffic signals and Variable Message Signs, and information can be provided to drivers to stay away from incident areas and avoid the onset of gridlock. Real time modelling is perceived to be highly specialist, expensive and data hungry; however, across Europe a number of Traffic Control Centres (TCCs) already operate supported by considerable sophistication in the prediction tools. These systems are provided by a plethora of suppliers, depend on a variety of data sources, with high maintenance cost and use a range of alternative forecasting algorithms, software and hardware, whilst the user interface is generally bespoke. These barriers stop the National Roads Authorities from collaborative learning from each other’s mistakes and successes, as the constraints and idiosyncrasies of each individual implementation are probably too great to encourage joint innovation.
Objectives:
STEP (Short TErm Prediction) is a project that has been designed to explore and hopefully overcome many of these institutional barriers, with the ultimate aim of implementing and testing a robust solution for real-time traffic modelling in an operational environment, based on generally available data, with lower maintenance costs. We have agreement with two TCCs in two countries so that we can apply our short-term prediction tools in practice and test their reliability and usefulness for operators. Barriers to innovation are overcome by running the short-term predictions remotely, removing the need to install new software and hardware in the TCCs. The risk to existing operation will be minimal; but the possible gains are considerable.
If successful, the two implementations will form the basis for the production of trans-national standards and specifications for implementation in Traffic Control Centres across Europe, including the design of user-friendly interfaces easing the understanding of dynamic information.
The project team consists of respected academics, consultants and operators from a number of European countries who collaboratively provide all the required know-how to achieve a system that aligns with best practice, is deliverable across Europe, and is low cost in data inputs and maintenance. In addition to established organisations our consortium includes an exciting new small size enterprise.
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