Pure and Plug-in-Hybrid electric vehicles can provide an appropriate technological answer to EU‘s energy and environmental strategic goals. But, to avoid a carbon or efficiency leakage from the end-use to the energy supply level, assessments must be performed in an inclusive framework.
Building such a framework is complex due to the technological dimension in which the transport system interacts with a highly diverse mobility demand and with the electric system and energy system more largely.
EV-STEP's overall goal is the long term strategic analysis of the energy, economic and environmental dimensions of the different kinds of electric vehicles i.e. pure and plug in hybrid electric vehicles. While the years up to 2030 define our main period of interest, our analyses will be extended to 2050 to ensure adequacy with EU’s long term GHG mitigation objectives.
Introducing a long term prospective dimension and the possible transformation of those interrelated systems increases the complexity of the task. By expanding existing system analysis tools, the aim of the EV-STEP project is to develop a framework for such an integrated assessment in order to assess the key technical and economic conditions of an increased electrification of European transport systems while covering the spatial heterogeneity of its territory.
The originality of the methodology is to associate in a common analysis a bottom-up energy systems optimisation model and a static computable general equilibrium model. The MARKAL/TIMES and IMACLIM-S modelling frameworks are used. EV-STEP‘s contribution to Electromobility+ is the evaluation of electric vehicles roadmaps, of their implications for the interconnected European electric and energy system and, on the economic side, the assessments of some impacts on EU28s economic input-output balance.
The EV-STEP project focused on the technical and economic conditions of electrified mobility at a strategic. EU level with EU wide models, and also at a more local scale with dedicated case studies. On the strategic EU level, the TIMES PanEU energy system model shows that an economic expansion of hybrid electric vehicles happens at the earliest in 2030 and in subsequent years to 2050. Against this background, the ambitious national targets appear as very high. Only under a scenario with an extreme climate protection target and estimated big efforts in the direction ‘economies of scale’ in battery technology, these electric cars reach on EU level a market share of 70% for cars.
The IMACLIM-P model was then used to estimate the macro-economic consequences of EV penetration for each energy system scenario produced by TIMES PanEU. The first conclusions show that the penetration of electric cars has contrasted impacts depending on the mitigation context. Under moderate GHG constraint, a strong development of the electric car up comes at a quite low GDP and unemployment cost. Contrastingly, under stringent mitigation objective there could be important GDP losses due to a strong increase in the marginal cost of electricity.
In the Paris Ile de France region case study, the EV-CAP model was developed to compute mobility patterns and individual charging profiles for a fleet of EVs. The results show that the current benchmark curves very partially represent the range of possible effects. Maximum loads could range from 0.7kW/vehicle to 10kW/ vehicle. In V2G modes a reduction of load up to -3kW/vehicle in peak periods coincides with an increase of 2kW/vehicle in other time periods.
A second case study focused on electric vehicle as a mean to balance wind power in the western Denmark region.
Under completion, it will provide a specific focus on grid balancing capacity as argument for electrified mobility.