THINK-UP - Thematic Network for Understanding Mobility Prediction
Overview
Background & policy context:
Co-operation and co-ordination becomes indeed a more and more important necessity not only between the countries or regions but also between different types of institutions which operate at different level: first there is the European Commission with the definition and implementation of common transport policy, then the members states which develop national transport policy, and most of the time concentrate on long term national flows and more and more frequently regions which take an increasing role in transport policy definition in parallel with local institutions, acting in urban areas. All these interventions have to be made in a consistent way so that general goals of sustainable transport policy can be reinforced: from that perspective it is then clear that a common understanding of transport evolutions, according to different transport “stimulus” or policy measures is a very important prerequisite for co-operation in definition of a policy as well as for acceptance of such policies in implementation process.
THINK-UP is a thematic network of the 5th Framework Research Programme whose objective was to develop a “common platform of understanding” for transport forecast in Europe. This meant first to contribute to the development of demand forecasts for year 2005/2010, 2015 and 2020 which was the expected outcome of the project EXPEDITE. THINK-UP and EXPEDITE have worked in close relation all along the life of these two projects for the definition of the modelling tool, the scenarios to be tested as well as for interpretation of results, concerning in particular trends and transport, and modal shift.
Objectives:
The main objective of the project THINK-UP was to build a “common platform” of understanding for transport projections, so that co-operation in the definition of the transport policy, and in particular for long term decision process, could be facilitated and strengthened.
In fact, THINK-UP aims to draw together results on transport demand forecasting and scenario building and to discuss and compare the methodologies used, the underlying hypotheses and the results obtained.
Methodology:
As a thematic network, THINK-UP was organised as a network of transport experts from many different sectors: policy makers, service providers, users and researchers. National representative of transport ministries involved in traffic forecasts of national master plans have also been closely associated and regularly invited so that they could follow the different steps of THINK-UP work from segmentation of the market, to modelling choice and presentation of forecasts so that they could bring their experience, and facilitate common interpretation of national and European results.
The THINK-UP work plan was divided in 4 thematic tasks.
Task 1 - Segmentation of demand and supply of passenger transport markets.
This task aimed to define market segmentation as regards supply and demand characteristics. The workshops involve both users and service providers in order to identify homogeneous demand and supply segments. Furthermore the workshops provided the forum for discussion on the evolution of the different market segments as regards core/competitive positions of the modes. The task defined 10-20 market segments to provide a focus for policy, identifying the core and competitive markets where conditions can be improved further.
Task 2 - Segmentation of demand and supply of freight transport markets.
This task, which was organised in a similar way, focused on freight transport markets, and through the workshops, it brought together users of freight services from different industrial sectors, and also service providers. By identifying specific supply and demand segments, it was possible to consider the trends in freight markets (e.g. changing logistics requirements, improved operating systems). The market segments identified were validated by experts at a final seminar, on the cross-segmentation of supply and demand for transport markets.
Task 3 - Policy variables for mobility prediction.
In this task focus was put on the policy context, but also in the implementation context of the forecasting exercise: policy content defined the policy measures or policy “bundles” to be tested, but the definition of the contextual scenarios, the type of information used, the possible impact of non-transport policies were also taken into account. A particular importance was given to the contribution of different institutional levels, regional, national, Euro
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