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Towards a regret-based paradigm for the ex-ante evaluation of transport policies (452-11-001)

Netherlands Flag
Geo-spatial type
STRIA Roadmaps
Smart mobility and services (SMO)
Transport mode
Multimodal icon
Transport policies
Deployment planning/Financing/Market roll-out,
Environmental/Emissions aspects,
Societal/Economic issues
Transport sectors
Passenger transport,
Freight transport



The regret-based mobility choice-modelling approach has been developed by the applicant in the context of a VENI-project. It presents a counterpart of the Nobel prize-winning utility-based approach that has dominated the field of transportation for decades. The regret-based approach has already attracted considerable attention among leading transportation researchers. Its parsimonious and tractable nature makes it uniquely positioned to transform into a viable paradigm for the ex-ante evaluation of transport policies. The proposed research takes this step by performing two projects:
Project “National Model” develops and applies a regret-based counterpart of the Dutch National Model. The National Model is an internationally renowned utility-based model system for nationwide forecasting of aggregate mobility patterns. The creation of a regret-based National Model would be unique worldwide. In addition, an in-depth empirical comparison is provided between predictions made by the regret- and utility-based National Model. This would be the first time ever that the two paradigms are being compared at the level of aggregate mobility patterns.


Project “Economic Appraisal” develops and applies a regret-based theory for economic appraisal, which supports rigorous measures of willingness-to-pay and user benefits. Such a theory for economic appraisal already exists within the utility-based paradigm, and is a prerequisite for the translation of the impact of transport policies into monetary terms. The developed regret-based theory of economic appraisal will be used, in combination with the regret-based National Model, to provide rigorous ex-ante evaluations of selected transport policy initiatives. In-depth comparisons are made with utility-based evaluations.


Parent Programmes
Institution Type
Research agency
Type of funding
Public (national/regional/local)
Funding Source


Lead Organisation
EU Contribution
Partner Organisations
EU Contribution


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