Overview
The NRP 41 was launched by the Federal Council at the end of 1995 to improve the scientific basis on which Switzerland's traffic problems might be solved, taking into account the growing interconnection with Europe, ecological limits, and economic and social needs. The NRP 41 aimed to become a think-tank for sustainable transport policy. Each one of the 54 projects belongs to one of the following six modules:
- A Mobility: Socio-institutional Aspects
- B Mobility: Socio-economical Aspects
- C Environment: Tools and Models for Impact Assessments
- D Political and Economic Strategies and Prerequisites
- E Traffic Management: Potentials and Impacts
- F Technologies: Potentials and Impacts
- M Materials
- S Synthesis Projects
Estimation of the effects of demand for Swissmetro in the St.Gallen-Geneva corridor. Development of a simulation model which can represent the interdependence between the demand, the level of service variables, and the travel costs (fares and car travel costs).
The actual demand was gathered through various sources:
- Statistics of the SBB;
- Special interviews of travelers in trains;
- Our own surveys of long distance travel on the A1 (Video observations of traffic on the Autobahn);
- Interviews by mail of users of the Autobahn, who could be identified on the ba-sis of the video observations;
- Official statistics of air travel within Switzerland.
The results of these interviews and stated preference experiments form the basis of the model. The corresponding estimation was carried out with the help of a special statistical-econometric software package. The partial models found in this step form the basis for the simulation model with which the interdependencies can be represented.
Funding
Results
The results show that Swissmetro, if it was implemented in the year 2015 for example, would attract some 24,000 passengers between Geneva and Lausanne and approx. 34,000 passengers between Bern and Zurich (by direct line) per day and in each direction. Around 60% would transfer from Swiss Rail, 25% from road travel, and approx. 15% would be additional travel.
Conventional rail travel would decrease by about 50% on some journeys. The demand for Swissmetro will be particularly sensitive to variations in timetables and fares. For example, a reduction of fares by 10% for Swissmetro would result in an increase of passenger volume by 3.1%, whereas an increase of travelling time by 10% would lead to a reduction of passenger volume by 3.4%.
If travelling times on the road were to increase by 10% (e.g. because of congestion) the demand for Swissmetro would rise by around 2.7%, and a reduction of train frequencies by Swiss Rail from 60 to 120 minutes would result in a further increase of 8.4%.
Policy implications
Passenger
Key Findings
No results directly relevant to this theme. However, please note that some findings relevant to the project's key theme (Other Modes) are generically applicable.
Long-distance
Key Findings
No results directly relevant to this theme. However, please note that some findings relevant to the project's key theme (Other Modes) are generically applicable.
Other modes
Key Findings
• The results show that Swissmetro, if it were implemented in the year 2015 for example, would attract some 24,000 passengers between Geneva and Lausanne and approx. 34,000 passengers between Bern and Zurich
• Conventional rail travel would decrease by about half on some relations.
• The demand for Swissmetro will be particularly sensitive to variations in timetables and fares.