ASTER - Aviation Safety Targets for Effective Regulation
Overview
Background & policy context:
ASTER is a project carried out on behalf of DGVII of the European Commission in 2000-2001. The ASTER project has been initiated in response to Key action 2.2 of the Fifth Framework Programme (‘Competitive & Sustainable Growth’) of the European Commission.
Objectives:
The main objective of the ASTER research is the development of a methodology that enables safety targets to be set and optimised for each of the participants in the air transport system, to achieve the optimum level of safety for the system as a whole. To support this process, means were developed for assessing the safety benefits of any changes, including changes in legislation/rulemaking, in relation to the cost of implementing those changes. Current methodologies in support of risk based regulation for the air transport system are restricted to the aircraft and its systems, do not adequately support a total aviation system approach, and do not allow effective cost-benefit assessment.
Methodology:
Methods that are currently being used in aerospace for setting target levels of safety were analysed. The analyses included strengths, weaknesses and developments in the current use of safety targets. A comparative analysis with the rail and nuclear power sector was performed.
All elements of the Air Transport System (ATS) were analysed and their ownership defined, including cross relationships. The relationships between ATS elements and causal factors of accidents and incidents were investigated and subsequently modelled and parameterised into a scenario based accident risk model. The accident risk model uses a taxonomy of causal factors that is based upon the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) Accident/Incident Data Report (ADREP) standard. Accidents and incidents are described as a sequence of events with descriptive and explanatory factors. The identification of relationships between causal factors is supported by a functional model of the Air Transport System. The functional model assists in identifying affected elements in the system. The accident risk model and the functional model were combined and quantified in a Bayesian Belief Network.
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