Overview
In addition to adequate data, the formulation of transport forecasts relies upon a knowledge of the relationships between the demand for transport and those factors which influence it. These relationships are described with mathematical functions and the their model parameters. The parameters derived from revealed preference (RP) data are often subject to too many imponderables and are thus of only limited value in many cases. The main cause of this uncertainty is data which is either insufficiently detailed or unsuitable for estimating transport demand functions.
The main aim of the project is to estimate the elasticity of demand in Switzerland's passenger traffic using standard statistical methods and new empirical data.
Another goal of the study is to identify advantages and disadvantages of newer methods of estimating the elasticity of demand and to assess these methods with regard to their applicability to Swiss conditions.
The results of the study should represent a basis for analysis of different measures in the field of transport to estimate effects of demand at least roughly.
Applying various appropriate statistical (traditional and newer) methods on new empirical data.
A case study for Switzerland, but foreign studies were taken into account.
Funding
Results
The main focus of the study lies on the following points:
Classical elasticities: Key results are an overview over the research and literature to this issue. Thereby, Swiss as well as foreign studies are being taken into account. Further, elasticities for Switzerland were calculated/estimated. Afterwards, the estimated elasticities for Switzerland are evaluated: the elasticities are compared with the existing research results and general conditions for their applicability are defined.
Stated-Preference Analysis: Potentials and limits of the stated-preference method for the determination of elasticities of demand are identified. The task in the part is limited to the presentation of the method of the stated-preference concept by showing analyses of existing examples of use and recommendations.
The aim of the research based on recent empirical database was to estimate the demand for passenger transport in Switzerland using traditional methods and to consider new methods for estimating demand considering the advantages and disadvantages in comparison with the traditional method.
Publications:
Vrtic, M., O. Meyer-Rühle, S. Rommerskirchen, P. Cervenka und W. Stobbe (2000), Sensitivitäten von Angebots- und Preisänderungen im Personenverkehr, Bericht an die Vereinigung der Schweizerische Verkehrsingenieure, Prognos AG, Basel
Policy implications
Results of the survey will serve as the basis for various transport policy measures to assess their effects on transport demand.