Traffic forecast with real-time data (VSS2007/905)
Overview
Background & policy context:
Early and forward-looking traffic forecasts provide reliable information for road operators and users. It is an important foundation for good management of the road network.
The predictive power of current models is not sufficiently reliable to use for timely decisions on traffic management measures or for use by road users planning their routes. The short-term forecasts used today are generally based on current market sizes (online data) that are projected to the near future based on data known from the past.
The road user knows his goal as a rule at the start of his journey. When setting out on his journey, a 'real' forecast is thus available. It might be recognised immediately at the start of driving and a large sum of individual origin-destination relationships (desire lines) might serve as a basis for forecasting future continuous data.
The questions of whether and to what extent such data can be improved, of what data sources for the online traffic forecast can be compared with conventional forecasting algorithms and improved qualitatively, of which data are available or could be generated, has not been studied.
Objectives:
Today the quality of traffic forecasts is often not sufficient for operational decisions within a traffic control centre, neither for prompt (real-time) traffic control measures nor for reliable traffic information, e.g. for navigation systems.
This project aims at improving traffic forecast quality. It figures out how an increase of forecast quality can be obtained, which data and data quality is necessary for this and a clarification of the technical and organisational aspects for data gathering and distribution as well.
The main purpose (in the scope of traffic management) is to get an improved short term traffic forecast on a local, regional and national level. Further expected results:
- Proposal for adoptions of the legal basis or regulations concerning data availability and the conditions for data use (which has been originally gathered for other purposes).
- Business model that creates a “win situation” for the distributor and receiver of this data.
- Proposal for standardisation concerning data quality requirements.
Beneficiaries of this research are road operators, traffic and system engineers, ITS manufacturers and road users.
Methodology:
The following steps took place:
Step A Part of transport planning: Desk research, interviews / workshops with experts
Step B Technical part: Desk research, interviews with system operators
Step C Organizational and legal aspects: Interviews / workshops with legal experts, privacy advocates, selected data-owner and operators of navigation devices, Directorate General of Customs, etc.
Step D Final Report: Summary of results
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